More Good Inflation News Sep 27 Market Recap

More Good Inflation News Sep 27 Market Recap

Indices 

• Dow 42,313 (new record closing high), +250 or +0.59%.  
• Nasdaq 18,119, +171 or +0.95%. 
• S&P 5,738 +36 or +0.63%. 
• MSCI EAFE 2506.69, +85.76 or +3.54%.  
• USD10Y 3.749%, +2.1bp or +0.56%. 
• WTI Crude $68.64 bbl, -$2.61 or -3.66%.  

More Good Inflation News  

While there were several economic data points last week, only two really mattered with regard to the long-term health of the economy; the GDP revision and the August Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE). The second GDP revision was unchanged and showed the economy growing at a robust 3.0% annual rate. On Friday, the PCE was published at +2.2%, down from last month’s +2.5% and its lowest level since February of 2021. With the Fed commencing its rate cutting cycle and the economic data heavily weighted to the positive, all eyes will now turn to the Q3 earnings season which will begin late next week with the money center banks (October 11). 

The Upcoming Week: September 30 – Oct 4 

Economic data comes fast and furious this week starting with the final September manufacturing and services data, but all eyes will be on the job numbers starting on Tuesday with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, followed by Wednesday’s ADP Private Payrolls report and concluding with the Labor Department’s September Non-Farm Payrolls report. 

Earnings are light with only Carnival Cruises and Nike of note.  

Economic Calendar 

• Monday – N/A. Earnings: Carnival Cruises (CCL). 
• Tuesday – September Final S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Survey, August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Earnings: Nike 
• Wednesday – September ADP Private Payrolls. 
• Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims, September Final U.S. S&P Services PMI and ISM Services Survey. 
• Friday – September Non-Farm Payrolls, September U.S. Unemployment Rate, September Average Hourly Wages. 

If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review. 

Last Week‘s Daily Trading Recap… 

Monday – Dow +61 to 42,124 (record closing high), Nasdaq +25 to 17,974, S&P +16 to 5,718 (record closing high), USD10Y +1.1bp to 3.739% 

• Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Energy, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate. 
• September Flash Services’ PMI was in line with expectations at 55.4 vs last month’s 55.7 print. 
• September Flash Manufacturing PMI missed expectations at 47 vs 48.4 and vs last month’s 47.9 and is now at its lowest level in the last 15 months. 
• The CME Fed Watch Tool now predicts a 54% chance of another 50bp rate cut at the Fed’s November meeting. 

Tuesday – Dow +83 to 42,208 (record closing high), Nasdaq +100 to 18,074, S&P +14 to 5,732 (record closing high), USD10Y -0.3bp to 3.736%. 

• Six of eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Financials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.

Wednesday – Dow -293 to 41,915, Nasdaq +7 to 18,082, S&P -10 to 5,722, USD10Y +4.5bp to 3.781%. 

• Nine of eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Energy, Health Care, and Financials. 
• Micron Technology (MU) beat their estimates and guided higher; MU is trading up +14.47% post close. 
• Congress passed a short-term funding bill for the President’s signature to avert an October 1 government shutdown deadline. 

Thursday – Dow +260 to 42,175, Nasdaq +109 to 18,190, S&P +23 to 5,745 (new record closing high), USD10Y -4.1bp to 3.74%. 

• Six of eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Materials, Technology, and Financials. 
• Jobless claims fell to 218,000 vs 224,000 forecast and vs. last week’s slightly revised higher print of 222,000 (originally 219,000). 
• August Durable Goods Orders were flat month-over-month vs expectations of -3.0% and vs last month’s +9.0% print. 
• The second revision of Q2 GDP was unchanged at +3.0%. 
• Costco Wholesale (COST) beat earnings but missed their revenue estimates. 

Friday – Dow +137 to 42,313 (new record closing high), Nasdaq -70 to 18,119, S&P -7 to 5,738, USD10Y -4.2bp to 3.749%. 

• Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Industrials, Materials, and Technology. 
• The August Headline Personal Consumption Expenditure was in line with expectations at +0.1% and vs +0.2% last month. 
• Headline Year over Year PCE fell to +2.2% its lowest level since February 2021. Expectations were +2.3% and last month’s print was +2.5%.  
• August Core PCE fell to +0.1% vs expectations of +0.2% and last month’s +0.2% print. 
• Year-over-year Core PCE was unchanged at +2.7%.

If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review. 

Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets…Bitcoin, Cardano, Chainlink, Ethereum, ACHR, AVGO, and BITB.