Another Perfect Week – Dec 1 Market Recap
Indices
- Dow 36,245, +855 or +2.42%.
- Nasdaq 14,305, +55 or +0.39%.
- MSCI EAFE 2130.49, +8.36 or +0.39%.
- S&P 4,594, +35 or +0.77%.
- USD10Y 4.226%, -24.6bp or -5.50%.
- WTI Crude $74.25/bbl, -$1.29 or -1.71%.
Another Perfect Week!
With the exception of Friday’s manufacturing data, which continued to reveal weakness, it was a perfect week of data and market performance. Consumer Confidence was higher, a noted Fed hawk indicated that interest rates may be at a sufficiently high level to combat inflation, Q3 GDP was revised even higher to a +5.2% annual growth rate, the Fed Beige Book reported Goldilocks conditions, jobless claims were in-line, and most importantly, the November Personal Consumption Expenditure numbers (both headline and core) were the lowest they have been since the spring of 2021. The U.S. 10-year yield fell another 5% this week and crude oil prices continued to fall despite attempts by OPEC+ to engineer additional supply cuts.
Next Week
Markets will continue to focus on the economic data; November U.S. Services data and JOLTS are released on Tuesday, ADP Private Payrolls on Wednesday, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and the most anticipated piece, November Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Earnings have slowed to a crawl but there are several interesting names reporting; Broadcom and the demand for their AI chips, Campbell’s Soup for what they may reveal regarding input costs and potentially raising prices, and GameStop to check in on the former social media meme stock darling.
Economic Calendar
- Monday – N/A. Earnings: N/A.
- Tuesday – November S&P U.S. Services PMI and ISM Services Index. October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Earnings: N/A.
- Wednesday – November ADP Private Payrolls, Earnings: C3ai (AI), Campbell’s Soup (CPB), GameStop (GME).
- Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims. Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO).
- Friday – November Non-Farm Payrolls, November Unemployment Rate, November Hourly Wages. Earnings: N/A.
If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.
Dec 1 Daily Trading Recap…
Monday – Dow -56 to 35,333, Nasdaq -10 to 14,241, S&P -9 to 4,550, USD10Y -8.3bp to 4.389%.
- Seven of eleven S&P sectors traded down, led lower by Health, Industrials, and Communication Services.
Tuesday – Dow +83 to 35,416, Nasdaq +40 to 14,281, S&P +4 to 4,555, USD10Y -5.3bp to 4.336%.
- Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.
- November Consumer Confidence was higher than expected at 102 vs 101 expected and vs 99.1 last month.
- Two of the Fed’s most hawkish members appeared to be split on whether more rate increases will be needed with Fed Governor Waller expressing that the Fed may have done enough to tame inflation while Governor Bowman indicated she still believes further rate increases to be necessary.
Wednesday – Dow +13 to 35,430, Nasdaq -23 to 14,258, S&P -4 to 4,550, USD10Y -6.5bp to 4.271%.
- Six of eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Real Estate, Financials, and Materials.
- The first revision of Q3 GDP came in even higher than the original reading at +5.2% vs +5.0% expected vs the original reading of +4.9%.
- The November Fed Beige Book reflected slowing economic growth, an easing labor market, and still elevated but moderating prices.
Thursday – Dow +520 to 35,950, Nasdaq -32 to 14,226, S&P +17 to 4,567, USD10Y +8.1bp to 4.352%.
- Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Health Care, Industrials, and Financials.
- Jobless claims rose to 218,000, vs 220,000 forecast and vs last week’s slightly revised higher print of 211,000 (originally 209,000).
- The November Personal Consumption Expenditure was flat month-over-month resulting in the year-over-year number falling to +3.0%, the lowest since March 2021.
- The November Core PCE rose +0.2% from October, in-line with expectations and bringing the year-over-year number to +3.5%, the lowest since April 2021.
Friday – Dow +294 to 36,245, Nasdaq +78 to 14,305, S&P +26 to 4,594, USD10Y -12.6bp to 4.226%.
- Ten of eleven S&P sectors traded higher, led by Real Estate, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary.
- November S&P U.S. Manufacturing PMI continued to demonstrate weakness at 49.4 unchanged from last month but missing expectations of 49.6.
- November ISM Manufacturing Index was the same story, unchanged from last month’s 46.7% print, but well below the 47.7% estimate.
If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets…Bitcoin, Cardano, Chainlink, Ethereum, ETHE, GBTC, GM, and TSLA.