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Banks Quiet, PCE Better (March 31 Market Recap)

April 1, 2023

Banks Quiet, PCE Better (March 31 Market Recap)

Indices 

  • Dow 33,274, +1037 or +3.22%. 
  • Nasdaq 12,221, +397 or +3.36%. 
  • S&P 4,109, +138 or +3.48%. 
  • USD10Y 3.494%, +11.4bp or +3.37%. 
  • WTI Crude $75.70/bbl, +$6.28 or +9.05%.

Banks Quiet 

Fears concerning Deutsche Bank last week seem to have been unfounded as the stock rallied throughout the week and the whisper campaign ceased. No other banks were rumored to be in trouble, First Republic Bank endured another week and the pace of bank borrowing from the Fed slowed from last week’s levels. Between the discount window and the Fed’s Bank Term Lending Facility, institutions borrowed $152.6 billion vs $164 billion the week prior.

PCE Better 

The inflation data on Friday (the Personal Consumption Expenditure) surely elicited sighs of relief from Fed leadership. Headline month over month PCE was +0.3%, a tenth better than expected and year over year the number declined to +5.0% vs +5.3% the month prior. The Core numbers were also better; declining to +0.3% vs +0.6% last month and YoY to +4.6% from +4.7% last month. The PCE data along with the calmness in the banking sector last week allows the Fed some room to maneuver should the Non-Farm Payrolls number come in hot next Friday. If the jobs number is inline or lower than expected, perhaps we will see the first Fed pause. In fact, the CME Fed Watch Tool predicts a 51.6% possibility of a pause at the next Fed meeting May 3. 

Next Week 

It’s a busy week for economic data. March manufacturing and services data are expected on Monday and Wednesday respectively. February JOLTS is Tuesday. Wednesday is ADP Private Payrolls and Friday is the all-important Non-Farm payrolls along with Average Hourly Wages. 

Economic Calendar

  • Monday – March Final S&P U.S. Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Index. 
  • Tuesday – February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). 
  • Wednesday – March ADP Private Payrolls, March S&P Final U.S. Services PMI, and ISM Services Index. 
  • Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims. 
  • Friday – March Non-Farm Payrolls, March Average Hourly Wages. 

If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review. 

March 31 Daily Trading Recap…

Monday – Dow +195 to 32,432, Nasdaq -55 to 11,768, S&P +6 to 3,977, USD10Y +14.8bp to 3.528%. 

  • Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Energy, Financials, and Industrials. 
  • CNBC reported that flows from the smaller regional banks into the large money center banks has slowed. 
  • First Citizens Bancorp agreed to buy Silicon Valley Bank at a 23% discount. The deal also includes multiple guarantees that FDIC was obliged to make in order to get the deal done. However, the FDIC did obtain equity rights that could help mitigate some of the risk. 
  • Ride share company Lyft (LYFT) announced its co-founders were stepping down and introduced a new CEO, David Risher. LYFT traded up 4.38% post close. 

Tuesday – Dow -38 to 33,394, Nasdaq -53 to 11,716, S&P -6 to 3,971, USD10Y +3.6bp to 3.564%. 

  • Six of eleven S&P sectors traded down, led lower by Communication Services, Healthcare, and Technology. 
  • March U.S. Consumer Confidence beat expectations at 104.2 vs 101 and last month’s 103.4 print.

Wednesday – Dow +323 to 32,717, Nasdaq +210 to 11,926, S&P +56 to 4,027, USD10Y +0.2bp to 3.566%. 

  • All eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Real Estate, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary. 

Thursday – Dow +142 to 32,859, Nasdaq +87 to 12,013, S&P +24 to 4,051, USD10Y -1.5bp to 3.551%. 

  • Jobless claims inched higher to 198,000 vs 196,000 expected and last week’s unrevised print of 191,000.  
  • The 2nd revision of Q4 GDP was down slightly to +2.6% from +2.7% after the first revision. 

Friday – Dow +415 to 33,274, Nasdaq +208 to 12,221, S&P +58 to 4,109, USD10Y –5.7bp to 3.494%.

  • All eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate, and Communication Services. 
  • February Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) was better than expected. Headline PCE month over month (MoM) was +0.3% vs last month’s +0.6% and year over year (YoY) PCE declined to +5.0% vs last month’s +5.3%. Core PCE MoM (excluding food and energy) also declined to +0.3% vs +0.6% last month and YoY fell to +4.6% from +4.7% last month. 
  • March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment disappointed at 62 vs expectations of 63 and vs last month’s 63.4 print.

If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.

Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets…Bitcoin, Cardano, Chainlink, Ethereum, ETHE, GBTC, and TSLA. 

Category iconEducation Tag iconfederal reserve,  inflation,  market recap

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