Marin Wealth Advisors, LLC.

Registered investment Advisor

August 13, 2023

Good CPI Data Headlines Light Week – Aug 11 Market Recap

Indices 

  • Dow 35,281, +216 or +0.62%. 
  • Nasdaq 13,644, -265 or -1.91%. 
  • MSCI EAFE 2,129.23, -13.99 or –0.65%.  
  • S&P 4,464, -14 or –0.31%. 
  • USD10Y 4.168%, +10.8bp or +2.66%. 
  • WTI Crude $83.04 bbl, +0.40 or +0.48%. 

Good CPI Data Headlines Light Week 

The highlight of the week was the Consumer Price Index which demonstrated that while prices had rebounded from last month’s levels based largely on rising gasoline prices, the rebound was less than expected as other sectors continued to experience tepid pricing pressures. In fact, the Year over Year (YoY) number came in lighter than expected at +3.2% vs 3.3%. The Fed Futures market has now priced in an 88% probability of a pause by the FOMC at their next meeting in September.

Next Week 

Earnings slow to a trickle but retail reports from Walmart, Target, Ross Stores, Home Depot and TJ Maxx will give additional insights as to the health of the American consumer. Whether East Coast manufacturing has recovered into expansion territory will be revealed on Tuesday (New York) and Thursday (Philadelphia). Finally, Wednesday will see the release of the FOMC minutes from their July meeting.  

Economic Calendar 

  • Monday – N/A. 
  • Tuesday – July Retail Sales. August Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Earnings: Home Depot (HD). 
  • Wednesday – July FOMC minutes released. Earnings: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Target (TGT), TJ Maxx (TJX). 
  • Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims, August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Earnings: Walmart (WMT), Ross Stores (ROST). 
  • Friday – N/A. 

If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review. 

Aug 11 Daily Trading Recap… 

Monday – Dow +407 to 35,473, Nasdaq +85 to 13,994, S&P +40 to 4,518, USD10Y +1.8bp to 4.078%. 

  • Ten of eleven S&P sectors traded higher, led by Communication Services, Financials, and Industrials. 
  • Earnings: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/BRK.B) reported over the weekend, beating earnings and revenue estimates and noting a $147 billion cash balance; BRK.A traded up +3.43% in the regular session. Lucid Group (LCID) missed their revenue projections and their delivered cars target and still traded up +3.12% post-close.

Tuesday – Dow -158 to 35,314, Nasdaq -110 to 13,884, S&P -19 to 4,499, USD10Y -5.2bp to 4.026%. 

  • Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded down, led lower Materials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary. 
  • Financials were under pressure after Moody’s downgraded the debt of several U.S. banks including Capital One, Fifth Third Bancorp and M&T Bank citing interest rate and asset-liability management. 
  • Earnings: United Parcel Service (UPS) beat earnings, missed on revenues and guided margins and revenues lower blaming the new labor contract negotiated with the Teamsters union; UPS traded down –0.88% during the normal trading session. Eli Lilly (LLY) blew out their numbers and guided both revenues and earnings higher for the year: LLY traded up +14.87% during the regular session. Rivian (RIVN) lost less than expected on better-than-expected sales and traded up +2.14%. 

Wednesday – Dow -191 to 35,123, Nasdaq -162 to 13,722, S&P -31 to 4,467, USD10Y –1.4bp to 4.012% 

  • Seven of eleven S&P sectors traded down, led lower by Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. 
  • Earnings: Disney (DIS) beat earnings estimates but missed both revenue and Disney + subscription estimates; DIS traded down -0.73% during the regular session yet popped +2.24% post-close. 

Thursday – Dow +52 to 35,176, Nasdaq +16 to 13,738, S&P +1 to 4,468, USD10Y +6.8bp to 4.08%. 

  • Jobless claims rose to 248,000 vs the 230,000 forecast and last week’s unrevised print of 227,000.  
  • The July Headline Consumer Price Index was in line with expectations and unchanged from last month’s +0.2% print. YoY CPI rose from last month’s +3.0% to +3.2% but still beat expectations of +3.3%. 
  • The July Core CPI was also unchanged from last month and in line with expectations at +0.2%. YoY Core CPI was unchanged at +4.7%, slightly under expectations of +4.8%. 

 Friday – Dow +105 to 35,281, Nasdaq –93 to 13,644, S&P –4 to 4,464, USD10Y +8.8bp to 4.168%. 

  • Nine of the eleven S&P sectors traded higher down, led by Tech, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.  
  • July Headline Producer Price Index was up +0.3% vs +0.2% expected. YoY PPI rose to +0.80%. 
  • August preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was better at 72 vs 71.6 expected.

If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review. 

Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets…Bitcoin, Cardano, Chainlink, Ethereum, ETHE, GBTC, and TSLA.