Great Economic and Inflation Data Spur Market Rally (June 30 Market Recap)
Indices
- Dow 34,407, +680 or +2.02%.
- Nasdaq 13,787, +295 or +2.19%.
- MSCI EAFE 2131.72, +34.05 or +1.62%.
- S&P 4,450, +102 or +2.35%.
- USD10Y 3.819%, +8.0bp or +2.14%.
- WTI Crude $70.61 bbl, +1.11 or +1.60%.
Great Economic and Inflation Data Spur Market Rally
On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued his institution’s hawkish stance with comments suggesting the Fed could raise interest rates in the next two consecutive meetings. However, the release of encouraging economic data throughout the week and most importantly, the decline of the Personal Consumption Indicator, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation spurred a great rally for the markets last week.
Next Week
Despite the holiday shortened week, the back half of the week is chock full of data. Investors will focus on the June FOMC minutes, the ADP Private Payrolls Report, and Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report.
Economic Calendar
- Monday – Final June U.S. S&P and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- Tuesday – Markets Closed in Observance of Independence Day.
- Wednesday – Minutes released of June FOMC meeting.
- Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims, ADP June Private Payrolls, May JOLTS, June U.S. S&P and ISM Services PMI.
- Friday – June Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Wages.
If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.
June 30 Daily Trading Recap…
Monday – Dow -12 to 33,714, Nasdaq -156 to 13,335, S&P -20 to 4,328, USD10Y -2.0bp to 3.719%.
- Six of eleven S&P sectors traded higher, led by Real Estate, Energy, and Materials.
Tuesday – Dow +212 to 33,926, Nasdaq +219 to 13,555, S&P +49 to 4,378, USD10Y +4.9bp to 3.768%.
- Ten of eleven S&P sectors traded higher on strong economic data, led by Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Materials.
- May Durable Goods Orders were surprisingly strong at +1.7% vs expectations of –0.9% and last month’s +1.2% print.
- June U.S. Consumer Confidence was also very strong at 109.7, a 17-month high, vs expectations of 104 and last month’s print of 102.5.
- May New Home Sales handily beat expectations at 763,000 units vs 675,000 expected and last month’s 680,000 print.
Wednesday – Dow –74 to 33,852, Nasdaq +36 to 13,591, S&P –1 to 4,376, USD10Y –5.8bp to 3.710%
- Seven of eleven S&P sectors traded down, led by Utilities, Materials, and Consumer Staples.
- Fed Chair Powell, at a European Banking Summit in Portugal, did not rule out a rate hike at the FOMC meeting in July nor did he rule out possible consecutive rate hikes.
Thursday – Dow +269 to 34,122, Nasdaq -1 to 13,591, S&P +19 to 4,396, USD10Y +14.4bp to 3.854%.
- Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded higher, led by Financials, Materials, and Energy.
- Jobless claims dipped unexpectedly to 239,000 vs the 260,00 forecast and last week’s slightly revised higher print of 265,000 (vs 264,000 originally).
- Revised Q1 GDP increased to +2.0% annualized vs +1.6% previously.
- Treasury yields soared today after Fed Chair Powell’s comments yesterday along with today’s dip in jobless claims and the upward to revision to Q1 GDP.
Friday – Dow +285 to 34,407, Nasdaq +196 to 13,787, S&P +53 to 4,450, USD10Y –3.5bp to 3.819%.
- All eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities.
- May Headline Personal Consumption Expenditure was better than expected across the board; month over month was +0.1% vs +0.4% last month and year over year declined to +3.9% vs +4.3% last month.
- May Core PCE was also better than expected; month over month was +0.3% vs +0.4% last month and year over year declined to +4.6% vs +4.7% last month.
If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets…Bitcoin, Cardano, Chainlink, Ethereum, ETHE, GBTC, and TSLA.