Ground Hog Day (February 24 Market Recap)
Indices
- Dow 32,816, -1,010 or –2.99%.
- Nasdaq 11,394, -393 or –3.33%.
- S&P 3,970 -109 or –2.67%.
- USD10Y 3.949%, +12.1bp or +3.16%.
- WTI Crude $76.45/bbl, +$0.11 or +0.14%.
Ground Hog Day
While this blog would like to believe that it can impart some type of sublime weekly wisdom, the best it can offer this week is the lyric, “same as it ever was.” The Personal Consumption Expenditure came in hot on Friday, confirming the inflationary CPI and PPI numbers from last week. The Fed minutes from their last meeting were published, and to no one’s surprise, the governors and Presidents are convinced that ongoing hikes are necessary to defeat inflation. In addition, the labor market is showing no signs of flagging as Initial Jobless Claims continue to record fewer than 200,000 weekly claims. Earnings continue and while not spectacular, neither are they disastrous. All of which is to say, is that without some type of new catalyst, markets climbing higher from these levels seems to us a difficult proposition .
Next Week
The last embers of earnings season will see a week heavy on retail names. Other than durable goods and the ISM Manufacturing and Services Indices reports, economic data is light.
Economic Calendar
- Monday – January Durable Goods Orders. Earnings: Zoom (ZM).
- Tuesday – February Consumer Confidence. Earnings: Target (TGT), Rivian (RIVN), Ross Stores (ROST).
- Wednesday – Feb ISM Manufacturing. Earnings: Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF), Kohls (KSS), Lowe’s (LOW), Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW).
- Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims. Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO), Best Buy (BBY), C3.ai (AI), Costco (COST), Macy’s (M), Nordstrom (JWN).
- Friday – February ISM Services Index.
If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.
February 24 Daily Trading Recap…
Monday – Markets Closed in Observance of President’s Day.
Tuesday – Dow -697 to 33,129, Nasdaq -294 to 11,492, S&P -81 to 3,997, USD10Y +12.7bp to 3.955%.
- All eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Industrials.
- February Flash S&P U.S. Services and Manufactuing PMI’s improved month over month: the former recorded a 50.5 print vs January’s 46.8 and the latter a 47.8 print vs last month’s 46.9.
- The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note hit its highest level since last November.
- Earnings: Home Depot (HD) traded down 7% after missing their revenue numbers and giving tepid forward guidance. Walmart (WMT) beat their numbers but provided relatively weak forward guidance; WMT traded up +0.61%. Cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat their numbers and traded up 8% post close. Crypto exchange firm Coinbase (COIN) beat their revenue numbers, lost less than expected, but recorded fewer transactions: COIN traded down an additional 1.24% in the extended session.
Wednesday – Dow -84 to 33,045, Nasdaq +14 to 11,507, S&P -6 to 3,991, USD10Y –3.2bp to 3.923%.
- Nine of eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Real Estate, Energy, and Utilities.
- The Fed minutes from the January 31/Feb 1 meeting were released showing members convinced of the need for ongoing hikes and two members advocating for a 50bp hike rather than the 25bp hike the Fed implemented.
- Earnings: Etsy (ETSY) beat and traded up 6.46% post close. Nvidia (NVDA) beat both top and bottom line and traded up 8.89%. EV maker, Lucid (LCID) missed revenues and fell 9.32% in the extended session.
Thursday – Dow +108 to 33,153, Nasdaq +83 to 11,590 S&P +21 to 4,012, USD10Y –4.4bp to 3.879%
- Seven of the eleven S&P sectors traded up today, led by Technology, Energy, and Real Estate.
- First revision of Q1 GDP printed at +2.7% vs expectations of +2.9% and vs the initial +2.9% print.
- Earnings: HBO owner, Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) missed numbers badly based on poor ad revenue and fell -1.65% post close.
Friday – Dow -336 to 32,816, Nasdaq -195 to 11,394, S&P -42 to 3,970, USD10Y +7.0bp to 3.949%.
- Nine of eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Real Estate, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.
- January Personal Consumption Indicator was hotter than expected, confirming the disappointing CPI and PPI numbers from last week.
If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets…Bitcoin, Cardano, Chainlink, Ethereum, ETHE, GBTC, and TSLA.