Market Breaks Three Week Losing Streak but Inflation Data Looms (Sep 9 Market Recap)
Indices
- Dow 32,151 +833 or +2.7%.
- Nasdaq 12,112 +482 or +4.1%.
- S&P 4,067 +143 or +3.6%.
- USD10Y 3.321% +12.8bp or +4.0%.
- WTI Crude $86.10/bbl -$4.69 or -5.1%.
Markets Break Three Week Losing Streak
All three indices enjoyed a long overdue rally, and the S&P retook and surpassed its 50-day moving average of 4,030, an important technical level. However, other than being oversold, there was no real impetus for the move higher. The economic data released did nothing to dispel the narrative of slowing growth, elevated but receding inflation and tight labor conditions. The one exception was the ISM Services Index which was stronger than expected and as a result was blamed for the one down trading day on Tuesday.
Inflation Data Looms
With the market and most observers expecting the Fed to raise rates by another 75 basis points at the end of their meeting on September 21, the August CPI and PPI numbers loom large this week as they will be the last inflation data points published prior to the Fed’s decision. While a big decrease in prices might dissuade the Fed from a 75bp hike, it is more likely to influence the next rate hike decision November 1 –2. The markets, however, will cheer and rally on any further confirmation that inflation is lagging and likewise will test support should the numbers come in higher than expected.
Economic Calendar
- Monday – N/A.
- Tuesday – August Headline and Core Consumer Price Index (CPI).
- Wednesday – August Producer Price Index (PPI).
- Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims, September Philly Fed Index, September Empire State Manufacturing, August Retail Sales.
- Friday – September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, September University of Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations.
If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.
September 9 Daily Trading Recap…
Monday – Market closed in observance of Labor Day.
Tuesday – Dow -173 to 31,145, Nasdaq -86 to 11,544, S&P -16 to 3,908, USD10Y +14.7bp to 3.34%.
- Seven of eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Communication Services, Energy, and Technology.
- August U.S. Services PMI final was 43.7 vs last month’s 44.1 print.
- August U.S. ISM Services Index surprised at 56.9% vs expectations of 55.5% and July’s 56.7%.
Wednesday – Dow +435 to 31,581 Nasdaq +247 to 11,791, S&P +71 to 3,979, USD10Y –7.5bp to 3.265%.
- Ten of eleven S&P sectors traded higher, led by Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials.
- The Fed’s Beige Book, a survey of economic activity, showed weak growth, elevated but receding inflation and a continued tight labor market.
- WTI Crude slumped to its lowest price since January at $81.94/bbl.
Thursday – Dow +193 to 31,774 Nasdaq +70 to 11,862, S&P +26 to 4,006, USD10Y +2.7bp to 3.292%.
- Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Health Care, Financials, and Materials.
- Jobless claims were lower for the fourth consecutive week at 222,000 claims vs 240,000 expected and last week’s revised lower 228,000 print (originally was 232,000). Continuing claims increased 36,000 to to 1.47 million, their highest level in five months.
Friday – Dow +377 to 32,151, Nasdaq +250 to 12,112, S&P +61 to 4,067, USD10Y +2.9bp to 3.321%.
- All eleven S&P sectors traded higher today led by Communication Services, Energy, and Technology.
If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets…Bitcoin, Cardano, Chainlink, Ethereum, ETHE, GBTC, and TSLA.