Marin Wealth Advisors, LLC.

Registered investment Advisor

December 10, 2023

Markets Consolidate, Await the Fed – Dec 8 Market Recap

Indices 

  • Dow 36,247, +2 or +0.00%. 
  • Nasdaq 14,403, +98 or +0.69%. 
  • MSCI EAFE 2138.43, +7.94 or +0.37%.  
  • S&P 4,604, +10 or +0.22%. 
  • USD10Y 4.245%, +1.9bp or +0.45%. 
  • WTI Crude $71.26/bbl, Ma or -4.02%.  

Markets Consolidate, Await the Fed 

Markets were up negligibly across the board last week. Economic data continued to suggest that the Fed’s “soft landing” for the economy was still possible. U.S. services activity remained in expansion territory, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed the least amount of job openings in 28-months, ADP Private Payrolls were lower than expected but Non-Farm Payrolls were slightly stronger, Initial Jobless Claims rose for the third consecutive week, and the U.S. Unemployment Rate fell. Thus, those fearing inflation had data that placated their concerns (JOLTS, ADP Private Payrolls, Jobless Claims) and those fearing recession looked to the Non-Farm Payrolls data, the U.S. Services activity, and the shrinking U.S. unemployment rate. Have your cake and eat it too!  

Next Week 

The highlight of next week will be the inflation data in the form of the Consumer and Producer Price indices on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. There is also the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday and although the markets are expecting no change to rates (98% probability of no change), every word uttered by Fed Chair Powell during his press conference will be endlessly parsed. On the earnings front, Adobe (ADBE) and Costco Wholesale (COST) are due to report.  

Economic Calendar 

  • Monday – N/A. Earnings: N/A. 
  • Tuesday – November Consumer Price Index (CPI). Earnings: N/A. 
  • Wednesday – November Producer Price Index (PPI). FOMC interest rate decision. Earnings: Adobe (ADBE). 
  • Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims. Earnings: Costco (COST). 
  • Friday – December Empire State Manufacturing Index. Earnings: N/A. 

If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review. 

Dec 8 Daily Trading Recap… 

Monday – Dow -41 to 36,204, Nasdaq -119 to 14,185, S&P -25 to 4,569, USD10Y +6.2bp to 4.288%. 

  • Six of eleven S&P sectors traded down, led lower by Communication Services, Technology, and Materials. 
  • On Sunday, Alaska Airlines announced the purchase of Hawaiin Airlines for $1.9 billion in cash and debt, a move that will face intense regulatory scrutiny. 

Tuesday – Dow -80 to 36,124, Nasdaq +44 to 14,229, S&P -3 to 4,567, USD10Y -11.7bp to 4.171%. 

  • Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Energy, Materials, and Industrials. 
  • The October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey was down to 8.7 million openings, a 28-month low, vs 9.4 million expected and last month’s 9.4 million print. 
  • The November S&P U.S. Services PMI was 50.8 vs 50.6 expected and vs last month’s 50.6 print. 
  • The November ISM Services Index was 52.7% vs 52.4% expected and last month’s 51.8% print. 

Wednesday – Dow -70 to 36,054, Nasdaq -83 to 14,146, S&P -18 to 4,549, USD10Y -5.0bp to 4.121%. 

  • Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Energy, Technology, and Materials. 
  • November ADP Private Payrolls were below expectations at 103,000 vs 128,000 expected and vs 106,000 last month. 
  • Earnings: C3ai (AI) missed their revenue numbers and forecast a higher-than-expected loss. Campbell’s Soup (CPB) beat earnings and revenue expectations despite lowered sales due to price increases of between 2% – 5%. Social media favorite, GameStop (GME)  

Thursday – Dow +63 to 36,117, Nasdaq +193 to 14,339, S&P +36 to 4,585, USD10Y +0.8bp to 4.129%. 

  • Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Communication Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary. 
  • Jobless claims rose to 220,000, vs 222,000 forecast and vs last week’s slightly revised higher print of 219,000 (originally 218,000). 
  • Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO) missed revenues and guided full year revenues lower as well; AVGO traded down only 0.46% post market after surging more than 2% during the regular session. 

Friday – Dow +130 to 36,247, Nasdaq +64 to 14,403, S&P +18 to 4,604, USD10Y +11.6bp to 4.245%. 

  • Seven of eleven S&P sectors traded higher, led by Energy, Technology, and Financials. 
  • November Non-Farm Payrolls were 199,000 vs 190,000 expected and vs 150,000 last month. 
  • The November U.S. Unemployment rate shrunk from 3.9% to 3.7%. 
  • November Hourly Wages rose slightly more than expected to +0.4% vs +0.3 expected and vs +0.2% last month.

If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review. 

Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets…Bitcoin, Cardano, Chainlink, Ethereum, ETHE, GBTC, GM, RIVN, TOST, and TSLA.