Markets Continue Higher on Benign PCE Data – Mar 1 Market Recap
Indices
- Dow 39,087, -44 or -0.11%.
- Nasdaq 16,274, +278 or +1.74%.
- MSCI EAFE 2303.90, +15.48 or +0.68%.
- S&P 5,137, +48 or +0.94%.
- USD10Y 4.18%, -8.0bp or -1.88%.
- WTI Crude $79.73 bbl, +$3.16 or +4.13%.
Markets Continue Higher on Benign PCE Data.
The broader indices set new records this week as the data continued to reinforce the Fed’s “soft landing” narrative. Revised Q4 GDP was slightly lower than the original estimate but still healthy at a +3.2% annualized growth rate, durable goods orders and consumer confidence was down which assured inflation fears, the jobless claims number was a non-event, and crucially, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) was in line with expectations.
The Week Upcoming: Mar 4 – Mar 8
The retailers wind down earnings season with Target (TGT), Ross Stores (ROST), Nordstrom (JWN), and Costco all reporting this week. The February jobs report on Friday along with the unemployment report and average hourly earnings will be the most anticipated economic data for the week.
Economic Calendar
- Monday – N/A. Earnings: N/A.
- Tuesday – February ISM Services Index. Earnings: Target (TGT), Ross Stores (ROST), JW Nordstrom (JWN).
- Wednesday – February ADP Private Payrolls, January JOLTS. Earnings: N/A.
- Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims. Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO), Costco Wholesale (COST).
- Friday – February Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings. Earnings: N/A.
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March 1 Daily Trading Recap…
Monday – Dow -62 to 39,069, Nasdaq -20 to 15,976, S&P -19 to 5,069, USD10Y +3.9bp to 4.299%.
- Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Utilities, Communication Services, and Real Estate.
- Earnings: Zoom Video Communication (ZM) beat earnings and revenue estimates and traded up +10% post close.
Tuesday – Dow -97 to 38,972, Nasdaq +59 to 16,035, S&P +9 to 5,078, USD10Y +1.6bp to 4.315%.
- Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Utilities, Communication Services, and Materials.
- January Durable Goods Orders were worse than expected at -6.1% vs -5.0% and vs -0.3% last month.
- January Consumer Confidence was also worse than expected at 106.7 vs 115.1 and vs last month’s 110.9 print.
- Earnings: Macy’s (M) beat earnings but missed revenue expectations and announced that they would close 150 underperforming stores; M traded up +3.37%. Ebay (EBAY) posted a stellar quarter beating both top and bottom lines, raising guidance, announcing an additional $2 billion share buyback and raising their dividend; EBAY traded up +3.02% post close.
Wednesday – Dow -23 to 38,949, Nasdaq -88 to 15,947, S&P -8 to 5,069 USD10Y -4.1bp to 4.274%.
- Seven of eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Real Estate, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary.
- The first revision of Q4 GDP was slightly lower, +3.2% vs +3.3% on the original print.
- Congress struck a deal to kick government funding down the road. Some portions of the government now have funding until March 8 and others until March 22 barring further agreements.
- Earnings: Salesforce (CRM) beat earnings and revenue estimates, guided 2025 earnings higher but revenue guidance was lower than expectations; CRM traded down -1.55% post close. Former meme darling AMC Entertainment (AMC) lost more than expected and fell -11% in the extended session. TJ Companies (TJX) beat their earnings and revenue estimates and guided both the current quarter and 2025 earnings to slightly below the median range; TJX traded up +0.58%.
Thursday – Dow +48 to 38,997, Nasdaq +144 to 16,091, S&P +105 to 5,096 (new record close), USD10Y -2.2bp to 4.252%.
- Jobless claims fell to 215,000, vs 209,000 forecast and vs. last week’s slightly revised higher print of 202,000 (originally 201,000).
- January Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) was in line with expectations at +0.3% vs +0.1% last month. Year-over-year PCE fell to +2.4% vs +2.6% last month.
- January Core PCE was also in line with expectations at +0.4% vs last month’s +0.1% print. Year-over-year Core PCE fell slightly to +2.8% vs +2.9% last month.
Friday – Dow +90 to 39,087, Nasdaq +183 to 16,274 (new record close), S&P +41 to 5,137 (new record close), USD10Y -7.2bp to 4.18%.
- Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded higher, led by Technology, Energy, and Real Estate.
- The S&P recorded another all-time high and the Nasdaq recorded a new high-water mark, taking out the previous high of 16,091 set November 19,2021.
- February Final S&P Manufacturing PMI continued to show improvement at 52.2 vs 51.5 last month.
- February ISM U.S. Manufacturing Survey was lower than expected at 47.8% vs 49.5% and vs 49.1% last month.
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