Slow Week Despite Hot Inflation Data – Mar 15 Market Recap
Indices
- Dow 38,714, -8 or -0.02%.
- Nasdaq 15,973, -112 or -0.70%.
- MSCI EAFE 2325.12, -32.62 or -1.38%.
- S&P 5,117, -6 or -0.12%.
- USD10Y 4.304%, +21.5bp or +5.26%.
- WTI Crude $81.01 bbl, +$3.17 or +4.07%.
Slow Week Despite Hot Inflation Data
Markets didn’t much react to the hotter than expected Consumer and Producer Price Indices data this week. Perhaps that was due to the fact that the year-over-year (YoY) numbers either rose only slightly or actually declined (CPI YoY +0.1%, Core CPI YoY -0.1%, PPI, the outlier, YoY +0.6%, Core PPI YoY unchanged). The June FOMC Fed Watch Probability of a rate cut declined by about 10% points to 48.2% vs 57.4% a week ago, prior to the publication of the CPI and PPI information.
This Week: Mar 18 – Mar 22
It’s a light week all around. The FOMC interest rate decision will be a non-event as it is all but a certainty that the Fed will hold rates steady. Only Fed Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference has the potential to move markets depending on what he says regarding the timing and number of future rate cuts.
Earnings highlights include cereal maker General Mills (GIS), shipping giant FedEx (FDX), and shoe and apparel manufacturer Nike (NKE).
Economic Calendar
- Monday – N/A. Earnings: N/A
- Tuesday – N/A. Earnings: N/A.
- Wednesday – FOMC Interest Rate Decision. Earnings: General Mills (GIS), Micron Technology (MU).
- Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Federal Manufacturing Survey, S&P U.S. Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI. Earnings: FedEx (FDX), Nike (NKE).
- Friday – N/A. Earnings: N/A.
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Last Week‘s Daily Trading Recap…
Monday – Dow +47 to 38,769, Nasdaq -66 to 16,019, S&P -6 to 5,117, USD10Y +1.5bp to 4.104%.
- Six of eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Real Estate.
- Earnings: Oracle (ORCL) beat their earnings estimates, but revenues were light of expectations. ORCL traded up +13% post close.
Tuesday – Dow +235 to 39,005, Nasdaq +246 to 16,265, S&P +57 to 5,175 (new record close), USD10Y +5.1bp to 4.155%.
- Seven of eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary.
- The February Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with expectations at +0.4% vs +0.3% last month. The year-over-year number rose slightly to +3.2% vs +3.1% last month.
- February Core CPI was hotter than expected at +0.4% vs +0.3% but unchanged from January. Year-over-year Core CPI fell from +3.9% to +3.8%.
- Earnings: Kohl’s (KSS) beat earnings and revenue estimates and announced adding Babies R Us to 200 stores. KSS traded down -6.73%.
Wednesday – Dow +38 to 39,043, Nasdaq -88 to 16,177, S&P -10 to 5,165, USD10Y +3.7bp to 4.192%.
- Seven of eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Energy, Materials, and Utilities.
- Earnings: Williams-Sonoma (WSM) beat earnings and revenue estimates, increased their dividend by 26%, and expanded its stock buyback capacity to $1 billion; WSM traded up +18% post close.
Thursday – Dow -138 to 38,905, Nasdaq -49 to 16,128, S&P -15 to 5,150, USD10Y +10.6bp to 4.298%.
- Nine of eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Real Estate, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.
- Jobless claims fell to 209,000, vs 218,000 forecast and vs. last week’s revised lower print of 210,000 (originally 217,000).
- February Headliner Producer Price Index (PPI) rose to +0.6% vs +0.3% expected and vs +0.3 last month. Year-over-year PPI rose +1.6% vs +1.0% last month.
- February Core PPI rose +0.3% vs expectations of +0.2% and vs last month’s +0.5% print. The year-over-year Core PPI number was unchanged at +2.0%.
- Earnings: Adobe (ADBE) beat earnings and revenue estimates, but its quarterly revenue guidance was short of expectations; ADBE traded down -11% in the extended session.
Friday – Dow -191 to 38,714, Nasdaq -155 to 15,973, S&P -33 to 5,117, USD10Y +0.6bp to 4.304%.
- Seven of eleven S&P sectors traded down, led lower by Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary.
- March Empire State Manufacturing was down –20.9 vs expectations of –6 and vs February’s -2.4% print.
If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets…Bitcoin, Cardano, Chainlink, Ethereum, AVGO, BITB, ETHE, GBTC.