Great Data, Markets Consolidate Gains – Oct 4 Market Recap
Indices
- Dow 42,352 (new record closing high), +39 or +0.09%.
- Nasdaq 18,137, +18 or +0.10%.
- S&P 5,751 +13 or +0.22%.
- MSCI EAFE 2413.03, -93.66 or -3.74%.
- USD10Y 3.981%, +23.2bp or +6.19%.
- WTI Crude $74.45 bbl, +$5.81 or +8.46%.
Great Data, Markets Consolidate Gains
It was a nearly perfect week with regard to economic data. The JOLTS number showed more jobs available than last month, both private and Non-Farm Payrolls easily beat expectations, U.S. Services data was strong, the U.S. Unemployment Rate fell month over month and Fed Chair Powell stated that all things being equal, he anticipated two more 25bp rate cuts prior to year-end. Even the worrisome news that the International Longshoreman Association had voted to strike and shut down the ports of the entire Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast was quickly resolved with a tentative agreement announced on Thursday.
As a result of this economic data largesse, the three major U.S. indices drifted higher with both the Dow and the S&P 500 marking new closing highs; the Dow closed on Friday at its new high watermark and the S&P found itself a mere eleven points from its historic record.
The Upcoming Week: Oct 7 – Oct 11
Economic data is scarce until the CPI and PPI inflation data are published on Thursday and Friday respectively. However, third quarter earnings season begins with a trickle early in the week before the official kick off on Friday with JP Morgan (JPM), BlackRock (BLK) and Wells Fargo (WFC) all reporting.
Economic Calendar
- Monday – N/A. Earnings: N/A.
- Tuesday – N/A. Earnings: PepsiCo (PEP).
- Wednesday – N/A. Earnings: N/A.
- Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims, September Consumer Price Index (CPI). Earnings: Delta Air Lines (DAL)
- Friday – September Producer Price Index (PPI). Earnings: JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Blackrock (BLK), Wells Fargo (WFC).
If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.
Last Week‘s Daily Trading Recap…
Monday – Dow +17 to 42,330 (record closing high), Nasdaq +69 to 18,189, S&P +24 to 5,762 (record closing high), USD10Y +5.4bp to 3.802%.
- Nine of eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Energy, Communication Services, and Real Estate.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a speech in Tennessee, stated that assuming economic data continues its current trend, that he expects two additional 25bp rate cuts prior to year-end.
- Earnings: Carnival Cruises (CCL) beat both top and bottom-line estimates and boosted current year guidance.
Tuesday – Dow -173 to 42,156, Nasdaq -278 to 17,910, S&P -53 to 5,708, USD10Y -5.9bp to 3.743%.
- Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Technology, Real Estate, and Financials.
- Markets traded down today on fears of a wider Middle East conflict as Iran fired missiles into Israel.
- The International Longshoreman Association (ILA) went on strike today at 12:01am affecting ports along the Eastern Seaboard and the Gulf Coast.
- Final September U.S. S&P Manufacturing PMI ticked up slightly to 47.3, beating last month’s print and expectations of 47.
- September ISM Manufacturing was unchanged month-over-month at 47.2% but missed expectations of 47.5%.
- August JOLTS rose slightly to 8 million open jobs vs last month’s print and expectations of 7.7 million.
- Earnings: Nike (NKE) traded down -5.92% post close after announcing a mixed quarter and pulling its full year guidance.
Wednesday – Dow +39 to 42,196 Nasdaq +14 to 17,925, S&P +1 to 5,709, USD10Y +4.2bp to 3.785%.
- Seven of eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and Communication Services.
- ADP Private Payrolls for September were stronger than expected at 143,000 jobs added vs 128,000 expected and vs 103,000 in August.
Thursday – Dow -184 to 42,011, Nasdaq -6 to 17,918, S&P -9 to 5,699, USD10Y +6.5bp to 3.850%.
- Eight of eleven S&P sectors traded down today, led lower by Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Real Estate.
- Jobless claims fell to 225,000 vs 222,000 forecast and vs. last week’s slightly revised higher print of 218,000 (originally 218,000).
- September Final S&P U.S. Services PMI was 55.2 vs expectations of 55.4 and vs last month’s print of 55.4.
- September Final ISM Services Survey hit an 18-month high at 54.9% vs expectations of 51.8% and last month’s print of 51.5%.
- The ILA strike along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast ports ended with a tentative agreement and workers returning to their jobs while further details of the agreement are negotiated.
Friday – Dow +341 to 42,352 (new record closing high), Nasdaq +219 to 18,137, S&P +51 to 5,751, USD10Y +13.1bp to 3.981%.
- Nine of eleven S&P sectors traded higher today, led by Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services.
- September Non-Farm Payrolls were strong with 254,000 jobs added vs expectations of 150,000 and vs 159,000 last month.
- The September U.S. Unemployment Rate fell to 4.1% vs 4.2% last month.
- September Average Hourly Wages were lower month over month (+0.4% vs +0.5%) but a tenth higher than expectations of a +0.3% rise.
- Hourly Wages Year-over-Year rose to +4.0% vs +3.8% last month.
If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets…Bitcoin, Cardano, Chainlink, Ethereum, ACHR, BITB NVDA, and RIVN.